About FrontierAnalytics
The science was never the missing part.
Around twenty tropical cyclones enter Philippine waters every year. PHIVOLCS, UP NOAH and HazardHunterPH have mapped the hazard; the JRC has published the damage curves. And every season, people still find out how deep the water got by standing in it.
- tropical cyclones enter the PAR a year
- ~20
- products, one loop
- 3
- people, end to end
- 2
Source: PAGASA annual tropical cyclone statistics
Why we exist
It fails in the last mile.
None of this is a shortage of science. It’s that the science doesn’t arrive as something a person can act on, in the hours that matter. So we build the three pieces that close the gap.
Gauges go quiet the moment the power does.
Banks price a mortgage off a provincial average.
AssessProject Bedrock
A score for the specific address, with its uncertainty attached.
Inside Project BedrockCoordinators rebuild the situation from group chats while it changes.
Principles
Three rules we don’t bend.
Method before number
Publish first
The segmentation method went through peer review before a station was ever offered. The scoring rule is written down, including the places it breaks. If we can’t show how a number was produced, you shouldn’t use it — and neither should we.
A score is a promise
Honest precision
An expected loss carried to four decimal places implies a confidence the elevation model under it doesn’t have. We cap precision at what the data supports, keep hazard and livability as separate numbers, and publish backtests whether or not they flatter us.
It works, or it doesn’t
Design for the outage
The network is the first thing a typhoon takes out, so nothing important depends on it. Hardware that survives the storm it measures, inference on the device, a map that degrades instead of dying. If it only works in a demo, it doesn’t work.
The team
Small team. End to end.
We stayed small on purpose. Whoever soldered the station also wrote the scoring method and answers your mail — so nobody here can tell you it’s fine without knowing whether it is.
Gabriel Catimbang
Co-founder
Full bio coming. In the meantime, mail reaches him directly.
To be announced
Co-founder
Announcement coming.
Tell us where it breaks.
Found a hole in the method, or a river we should be watching? Write to the people who built it.